A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
