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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It commonly functions as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround wins the award. In practice, it creates an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or merely the most shocking shock.

But the current race is distinctly different. The list of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions declining and longtime strugglers improving in unison. During an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's up against several other elite coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical season!

The area where his case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and experience, he hired newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an early hot start, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still