Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.
Significant Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process
Several members on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of sources also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
However, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.
