Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
