The United Kingdom and France Plan to Send Forces to Ukraine if a Peace Agreement is Reached

The UK and France have signed a memorandum of understanding concerning the stationing of armed personnel in Ukraine if a peace deal be concluded with Russia, the UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, has declared.

Following discussions with Ukraine's allies in the French capital, he said that the allies would "establish operational bases in various parts of Ukraine and construct protected facilities for weapons and military equipment" to deter any subsequent incursion.

The partner countries also proposed that the United States would take the lead in overseeing a truce.

The Kremlin has on multiple occasions warned that any external forces in Ukraine would be considered a "legitimate target", but has not yet commented on this recent declaration.

Context and Ongoing Hostilities

Russian President Vladimir Putin began a comprehensive attack of Ukraine in early 2022, and Russian forces at this time controls roughly 20% of Ukrainian territory.

"This is a vital part of our vow to support Ukraine for the long-term," remarked the British leader.

Top officials and senior officials from the "Partner Group" took part in the recent discussions.

Addressing reporters at a joint press conference, he noted: "It creates the pathway for the operational parameters under which British, French, and partner forces could work on the ground in Ukraine, defending Ukraine's skies and seas, and regenerating Ukraine's armed forces for the future."

The PM added that Britain would participate in any Washington-directed verification of a potential ceasefire.

Security Guarantees and Negotiation Stances

Top American diplomat Steve Witkoff said that "long-term safety pledges and strong prosperity commitments are critical to a enduring ceasefire" in Ukraine – referring to a central requirement made by Ukraine.

Witkoff indicated the allies had "largely finished" their work on finalizing such guarantees "in order that the people of Ukraine know that when this war ends, it ends forever."

Donald Trump's son-in-law, former American President Donald Trump's special envoy, also took part in the discussions.

Meanwhile, President Macron Emmanuel Macron said that Ukraine's supporters had made "significant progress" at the negotiations.

He noted that "comprehensive" defense assurances for Kyiv had been agreed in the event of a possible ceasefire.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky commented that a "significant advance" had been made in the negotiations, but qualified that he would only deem efforts to be "adequate" if they culminated in the conclusion of the war.

Last week, the Ukrainian leader said a peace deal was "largely prepared". Agreeing on the outstanding 10% would "shape the future of the agreement, the destiny of Ukraine and Europe".

Outstanding Matters

• Land and security guarantees have been at the heart of key disagreements for diplomats.
• Moscow has often said that Ukrainian troops must retreat from all of Ukraine's eastern Donbas region or Russia will occupy it, rejecting any concession over how to conclude the war.
• Kyiv has so far rejected ceding any territory, but has proposed that Ukraine could withdraw its forces to an agreed point – but only if Russia does the same.

Russia currently holds approximately 75% of the Donetsk region and around 99% of the neighbouring Luhansk. The two regions form the industrial region of Donbas.

The initial US-led comprehensive peace plan that was extensively reported to the media last year was viewed by Ukraine and its partners in Europe as being disproportionately favorable in Russia's direction.

This triggered weeks of intensive negotiations – with Ukraine, the US and European leaders trying to adjust the proposal.

The previous month, Ukraine presented the US an new framework – as well as separate documents outlining potential defense assurances and plans for Ukraine's recovery, the President stated.